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AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics

$37.22

-1.72 (-4.42%)

15:19
08/07/18
08/07
15:19
08/07/18
15:19

Applied Optoelectronics options imply 21.7% move in share price post-earnings, above median historical move

Pre-earnings options volume in Applied Optoelectronics is 2.5x normal with puts leading calls 7:3. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 21.7%, or $8.14, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 17.5%.

  • 07

    Aug

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics
$37.22

-1.72 (-4.42%)

06/11/18
RSBL
06/11/18
INITIATION
RSBL
Sell
Applied Optoelectronics initiated with a Sell at Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang initiated Applied Optoelectronics with a Sell and $30 price target saying pricing wares are likely to continue to depress gross margins throughout the year and into 2019. Xhang expects increasing price competition in the 100G and 400G module markets and has concerns that Applied's 40% gross margins are unrealistic going forward, and does not believe this is reflected in consensus estimates. The analyst is forecasting 2019 earnings of $1.95, versus consensus of $2.86.
06/13/18
RSBL
06/13/18
NO CHANGE
RSBL
Sell
Applied Optoelectronics could be pressured by Google tightening, says Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang said checks point to a modest new tightening of capital spending at Alphabet's (GOOG) Google in Q2, which could lead to pressure on Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI). Among suppliers with modest exposure to Alphabet, Zhang currently sees minimal impact to Arista (ANET) and Juniper (JNPR). Zhang keeps a Sell rating on Applied shares.
07/18/18
PIPR
07/18/18
NO CHANGE
PIPR
Piper 'incrementally more upbeat' on Optical sector into earnings
Piper Jaffray analyst Troy Jensen is "incrementally more upbeat" on the Optical sector and believes investors "need to revisit the group" ahead of the June quarter earnings results. The set up for traditional optical component suppliers has improved with the industry now five quarters into the correction that started in March 2017, Jensen tells investors in a research note. This has created easy comps while growth rates should accelerate in the second half of 2018, the analyst adds. His favorite Overweight-rated names are Lumentum (LITE), II-VI (IIVI) and Fabrinet (FN). Jensen remains Neutral on Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Acacia Communications (ACIA), Infinera (INFN), NeoPhotonics (NPTN) and Oclaro (OCLR).
08/01/18
LOOP
08/01/18
NO CHANGE
LOOP
Loop Capital says Macom comments suggest Applied Optoelectronics, Finisar risk
Loop Capital analyst James Kisner noted that Macom (MTSI) said on its earnings call that last quarter it expanded its roster of white-box transceiver partners and launched its Data Center solutions business. He quotes the company as having said that its agreement with a new customer "enables a new high-volume optical manufacturer to enter the business of delivering fully-qualified CWDM4 transceivers to cloud service providers from their new 400,000-square-foot manufacturing facility." Kisner said the comments suggest a significant risk to the data center optics businesses of Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Finisar (FNSR) now appears to be realized, as customers such as Amazon (AMZN) can effectively "cut out the middlemen" from the module assembly business. About 80% of both Applied's and Finisar's sales come from datacom transceivers, which is business most directly threatened by this development, added Kisner.

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