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AAPL

Apple

$193.42

2 (1.04%)

, LITE

Lumentum

$41.50

0.46 (1.12%)

12:47
11/17/18
11/17
12:47
11/17/18
12:47

Apple stock could continue to slide, Barron's says

Apple's (AAPL) stock plunged 17% after being up nearly 40% through early October as cracks in the company's narrative began to form with the tech giant's earnings report earlier this month, Tae Kim writes in this week's edition of Barron's. For investors willing to connect the dots, the big clues came this week when two key suppliers, namely Lumentum (LITE) and Qorvo (QRVO), essentially singled out Apple for a sudden shortfall in component orders, the report notes. However, investors should probably wait to buy Apple stock until the Wall Street fully appreciates the company's weak product cycle, Kim contends. Reference Link

AAPL

Apple

$193.42

2 (1.04%)

LITE

Lumentum

$41.50

0.46 (1.12%)

QRVO

Qorvo

$66.32

1.18 (1.81%)

AAPL Apple
$193.42

2 (1.04%)

11/14/18
11/14/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim with analyst Robert Cihra saying the average selling price of the iPhone has increased a "dramatic" $220, or 40%, over the past 10 years, reflecting its "growing value to both consumer and business markets." 2. Kellogg (K) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan with analyst Ken Goldman saying that while nothing at the company's investor day "necessarily disappointed" him, he also did not gain "much comfort that the bottom-line turnaround would be swift." 3. Apollo Global (APO) and Carlyle Group (CG) were downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley. 4. Conagra Brands (CAG) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein with analyst Alexia Howard saying the frozen category has experienced positive growth over the past year, largely led by new product innovation from Conagra and Pinnacle Foods, but this now seems to be running out of steam. 5. Tenneco (TEN) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Armintas Sinkevicius citing its elevated leverage and limited free cash flow conversion in what he views as an increasingly uncertain environment for auto suppliers. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
11/15/18
MSCO
11/15/18
NO CHANGE
Target $253
MSCO
Overweight
Apple dip a buying opportunity amid supply chain 'noise,' says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty called the 8.5% decline in Apple (AAPL) shares following Lumentum's (LITE) and Qorvo's (QRVO) negative pre-announcements this week a buying opportunity, noting that she is still bullish on the iPhone maker's Services growth. Services will "take the growth baton" from Devices as the smartphone market matures, contends Huberty. While she believes investors should focus on Services rather than iPhone units, Huberty also believes Apple's December quarter guidance incorporates the revisions made by Lumentum and Qorvo, adding that unit revisions are typically more severe for the supply chain than Apple given inventory fluctuations and the company's steps to ensure adequate supply early in a product launch. Huberty keeps an Overweight rating and $253 price target on Apple shares.
11/15/18
11/15/18
UPGRADE
Target $55

Equal Weight
Qualcomm upgraded to Equal Weight after expectations reset at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette upgraded Qualcomm (QCOM) to Equal Weight from Underweight as he thinks consensus estimates now imply a more realistic scenario for QCT margins and that lowered expectations on a resolution with Apple (AAPL) gives room for the stock to react positively should legal proceedings trigger a settlement. He believes the stock's underperformance suggests the market has "appropriately" lowered expectations, Faucette added. He maintains a $55 price target on Qualcomm shares.
11/16/18
MSCO
11/16/18
DOWNGRADE
MSCO
Equal Weight
TSMC downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan downgraded TSMC (TSM) to Equal Weight from Overweight, stating that he is concerned that recent Apple (AAPL) iPhone supply chain order cuts "could be just the first wave" and weak orders from Apple "could be a new normal for TSMC" if next year's iPhone doesn't have attractive features. Chan, who doesn't think secular growth drivers are strong enough to differentiate the stock in a logic semi downcycle, lowered his price target on TSMC shares to NT$239 from NT$253.
LITE Lumentum
$41.50

0.46 (1.12%)

11/14/18
UBSW
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $225
UBSW
Neutral
UBS drops Apple price target to $225 from $240 on supply chain cuts
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered his estimates for Apple citing cuts in the company's supply chain. The analyst believes Apple in the past week has cut 6M-7M out of the original 63M build for new iPhone models, with the cut evenly split between the XS Max and XR models. On a net basis, however, this cut is slightly offset by a few million more older phones, Arcuri tells investors in a research note. The analyst's overall calendar Q4 estimate for iPhone units for sell-in go from 75M to 73.5M along with a slight reduction in average selling price. He also dropped his calendar Q1 unit estimate to 46.7M from 53.3M and Q2 estimate to 37.5M from 41.7M. The analyst notes that these cuts are "significantly" less than Lumentum's (LITE) negative preannouncement would imply and still a little less than the 10M implied by Qorvo (QRVO). Nonetheless, Arcuri thinks there is an "inventory component that is still negatively affecting the supply chain." The analyst dropped his price target for Apple to $225 from $240 while keeping a Buy rating on the shares. The iPhone maker closed yesterday down $1.94 to $192.23.
11/14/18
DADA
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $72
DADA
Neutral
Qorvo price target lowered to $72 from $81 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Thomas Diffely lowered his price target on Qorvo (QRVO) to $72 and kept his Neutral rating after the company cut its Q3 earnings guidance to reflect the expectations of a weaker high-end smartphone demand. The analyst believes that the "softer than expected" launch of the new iPhones by Apple (AAPL) has " triggered a rapid change in order flow over the past couple of weeks" and anticipates similar announcements from other Apple suppliers to track reduced guidance by Qorvo and Lumentum (LITE).
11/14/18
UBSW
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $53
UBSW
Buy
Lumentum price target lowered to $53 from $80 at UBS
UBS analyst Tejas Venkatesh lowered his price target on Lumentum (LITE) to $53 from $80 after the change in Qorvo (QRVO) guidance, which gave more evidence of Apple (AAPL) demand weakness being the underlying cause of Lumentum's change in expectations. The analyst lowered his estimates but said he does not see further inventory risk unless demand weakens further. Venkatesh maintained his Buy rating on Lumentum shares.
11/14/18
GUGG
11/14/18
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
Guggenheim sees 5% iPhone drop next year, downgrades Apple to Neutral
Guggenheim analyst Robert Cihra downgraded Apple to Neutral from Buy and removed his prior $245 price target for the shares. The stock closed yesterday down $1.94 to $192.23. The average selling price of the iPhone has increased a "dramatic" $220, or 40%, over the past 10 years, reflecting its "growing value to both consumer and business markets," Cihra tells investors in a research note. The analyst points out, however, that nearly half of that increase came in fiscal 2018 alone. This makes a "period of digestion now likely," Cihra writes in a note partially titled "ASPs No Longer Enough." The analyst believes Apple's growth via average selling price is now "widely known." The iPhone's nearly 60% contribution to revenue and profits is "looking like a headwind again," says Cihra. Following early supply chain cuts, exemplified by Corning's (GLW) "softer" Q4 gorilla glass guidance back in October and this week's warnings from 3D sensing laser supplier Lumentum (LITE) and LCD supplier Japan Display, the analyst now estimates iPhone units will decline 5% year-over-year in fiscal 2019. He cut his fiscal 2019 earnings per estimate for Apple to $12.97 from $13.41 and revenue estimate to $273B from $281B.
QRVO Qorvo
$66.32

1.18 (1.81%)

11/14/18
MKMP
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $86
MKMP
Buy
Qorvo price target lowered to $86 from $95 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Ruben Roy lowered his price target on Qorvo (QRVO) to $86 after its reduced Q3 guidance to reflect the "recent demand forecast change for Apple (AAPL) iPhone", which also follows the lowered guidance by its supplier Lumentum Holdings (LITE). The analyst also lowered his FY19 EPS view to $5.85 from $6.29 and FY20 to $6.65 from $7.10. Longer term, Royremains positive on Qorvo and keeps his Buy rating, maintaining his view that the company can generate "market share gains with higher value content, across a diverse set of mobile handset customers". The analyst is also positive on Qorvo "increasing revenue diversification".
11/14/18
LOOP
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $85
LOOP
Buy
Qorvo price target lowered to $85 from $90 at Loop Capital
Loop Capital analyst Cody Acree lowered his price target on Qorvo (QRVO) to $85 after its reduced Q3 guidance, saying the "softer unit volumes" sold by Apple (AAPL) were "undoubtedly the primary unnamed specific cause". The analyst is keeping his Buy rating on the shares however, stating that the "tier-1 smartphone unit weakness is becoming a common theme" that is generating lesser impact with each news release as evidenced by Qorvo's shares trading flat yesterday. Acree adds that investors should start to "pick their spots for 2019" amid the smartphone industry's start of migration to 5G and believes that Qorvo is "well positioned to continue to gain share at the leading tier-1 handset OEMs".
11/14/18
BMOC
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $65
BMOC
Market Perform
Qorvo price target lowered to $65 from $75 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Ambrish Srivastava lowered his price target on Qorvo to $65 after its reduced Q3 earnings view coming less than 2 weeks after its reported earnings. The analyst notes that the management had "sounded fairly bullish" on its earnings call, so "things must have changed in a hurry" in relation to its flagship smartphone demand. Srivastava also lowers his FY19 EPS view to $5.88 from $6.32 and FY20 EPS view to $6.53 from $7.36 while keeping his Market Perform rating on Qorvo.

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