Canada Q3 GDP Preview
Canada Q3 GDP Preview: analysts expect real GDP to slow to a 2.0% pace (q/q, saar) in Q3 from 2.9% in Q2. The consumption growth rate is seen moderating, residential investment should exert a drag, and net exports should provide a mild boost. The Bank projected a 1.8% Q3 GDP pace, so an as-expected gain would roughly match their outlook. The separate September GDP release is seen up 0.1% after a matching 0.1% gain in August, keeping a steady growth trajectory through the end of the quarter. But in terms of the policy outlook, the Q3 data has been eclipsed by the plunge in oil prices. Indeed, the main driver of policy expectations is the impact of the oil price drop on Canada's growth outlook - analysts suspect that the potential headwinds are strong enough to keep the BoC on hold at the December 5 announcement, and possibly delay the next rate hike to March or April. View our Q3 GDP preview, the September GDP preview and our commentary "BoC's Projected Policy Path Altered By Oil Price Plunge" for more.