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PM

Philip Morris

$89.93

-0.81 (-0.89%)

, IMBBY

Imperial Brands

$0.00

(0.00%)

07:14
03/25/19
03/25
07:14
03/25/19
07:14

Philip Morris revises FY19 EPS view for deconsolidation of Canadian subsidiary

Philip Morris International (PM) announced on Friday night that it was informed by its Canadian subsidiary, Rothmans, Benson & Hedges Inc., or "RBH," that RBH had obtained an initial order from the Ontario Superior Court of Justice granting it protection under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act, or CCAA. RBH announced that obtaining creditor protection became necessary following recent developments in two Class Action proceedings in Quebec against RBH, Imperial Tobacco Canada Limited (IMBBY) and JTI-Macdonald Corp. The initial order includes a comprehensive stay of all tobacco-related litigation pending in Canada against RBH and PMI, "thus providing an efficient forum for RBH to seek resolution of all such litigation," the company said. As a result of the filing, and under U.S. GAAP, PMI will deconsolidate RBH from its financial statements, resulting in an estimated one-time non-cash charge of approximately 10c per share. While it remains under creditor protection, RBH does not anticipate paying dividends. As RBH has not paid dividends since the trial court's judgment in May 2015, the deconsolidation will not have an impact on PMI's current annualized dividend rate. As a result of the deconsolidation of RBH, PMI today revises its full-year 2019 reported diluted earnings per share forecast to be at least $4.90 at prevailing exchange rates. This full-year guidance reflects: the current estimated one-time net impact of the deconsolidation of RBH under U.S. GAAP of approximately 10c per share, to be recorded in the first quarter of 2019, which is a non-cash item, plus the tobacco litigation-related charge of approximately 9c per share announced on March 4, 2019; and the exclusion of RBH's previously anticipated earnings from PMI's consolidated financial statements from the date of deconsolidation to December 31, 2019, of approximately 28c per share. Excluding the above deconsolidation-related items and the unfavorable impact of currency, at prevailing exchange rates, of approximately 14c per share, this forecast represents a projected increase of at least 8.0% versus a pro forma adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.84 in 2018. Assumptions underlying this forecast, and PMI's 2019-2021 targets, as communicated by PMI in its earnings release of February 7 and reiterated at the CAGNY Conference of February 20 remain unchanged on a like-for-like basis, except for 2019 operating cash flow, which, due to the impact of the deconsolidation, is now estimated to be approximately $9.5B, subject to year-end working capital requirements. FY19 EPS consensus is $5.40.

PM

Philip Morris

$89.93

-0.81 (-0.89%)

IMBBY

Imperial Brands

$0.00

(0.00%)

PM Philip Morris
$89.93

-0.81 (-0.89%)

02/27/19
UBSW
02/27/19
UPGRADE
Target $101
UBSW
Buy
Philip Morris upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS analyst Robert Rampton upgraded Philip Morris to Buy and raised his price target for the shares to $101 from $86. The stock closed yesterday down 11c to $86.51. The company's valuation hinges on its heated tobacco proposition, iQOS, Rampton tells investors in a research note titled "When death and taxes become less certain; upgrade to Buy." And he expects iQOS net revenue to grow from $4B in 2018 to $10.6B by 2021. Net of cannibalization, this translates to 8% annual organic revenue growth through 2021, or "well ahead" of Philip Morris' large European and U.S. peers, says Rampton. "Easy comparisons and a benign tax environment" for 2019 in key markets are also part of the analyst's upgrade to Buy.
02/27/19
02/27/19
UPGRADE

Fly Intel: Top analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Philip Morris (PM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS with analyst Robert Rampton saying the company's valuation hinges on its heated tobacco proposition, iQOS. 2. Boise Cascade (BCC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson with analyst Steven Chercover saying that with the "irrational exuberance" having been shaken out of the stock, now is an "attractive entry point." 3. AptarGroup (ATR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird. 4. W. R. Berkley (WRB) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, while Cincinnati Financial (CINF) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
03/06/19
JEFF
03/06/19
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Gottlieb resignation positive for tobacco sentiment, says Jefferies
The resignation of FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb is a net positive for tobacco sentiment, particularly for British American Tobacco (BTI) as it should lessen concerns related to any possible action around a menthol ban near term, Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett tells investors in a research note. A potential delay to guidelines around e-vapour restrictions could also support both British American and Imperial Brands (IMBBY), adds the analyst.
03/06/19
MSCO
03/06/19
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Resignation of Gottlieb lowers near-term overhang on Altria, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman said she expects a positive reaction in tobacco stocks to the news that FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb will resign in April as it likely delays the agency's near-term tobacco control objectives. Gottlieb has been very vocal on tobacco regulation and his resignation creates a vacuum in leadership and uncertainty about the agency's strategy for tobacco control until a new head is appointed, though leadership at the Center of Tobacco Products remains intact under Mitch Zeller, Kaufman tells investors. While his resignation reduces the near-term regulatory overhang on Altria (MO), it could be a "mixed bag for e-cigs," as Gottlieb changed his tone last year due to the youth e-cig epidemic but he had previously increased leniency towards the category when he pushed out the PMTA deadline to 2022 from 2018, added Kaufman.
IMBBY Imperial Brands
$0.00

(0.00%)

12/18/18
FBCO
12/18/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $74
FBCO
Underperform
Philip Morris downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Alan Erskine downgraded Philip Morris (PM) to Underperform and lowered his price target for the shares to $74 from $92. After conducting a survey of next-generation products users in Japan, the U.S. and the U.K., the analyst believes slower progress in the take-up of heated tobacco products and weaker combustible organic growth will challenge the high-single-digit earnings growth models of Philip Morris and British American Tobacco (BTI). Further, exposure to e-vapor favors Imperial Brands (IMBBY), Erskine tells investors in a research note. He believes Philip Morris' "premium" valuation reflects overly optimistic expectations for heated tobacco products. The analyst prefers shares of Outperform-rated Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco to Philip Morris.
01/07/19
COWN
01/07/19
DOWNGRADE
COWN
Market Perform
Imperial Brands downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen
01/07/19
COWN
01/07/19
DOWNGRADE
COWN
Market Perform
Imperial Brands downgraded to Market Perform at Cowen
As reported previously, Cowen analyst Vivien Azer downgraded Imperial Brands to Market Perform from Outperform. The analyst is growing increasingly cautious on the outlook for combustible cigarettes in the U.S. as her model suggests cigarette industry volumes will likely fall at an 8% CAGR between 2018-2025 with price not serving as an adequate offset.

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