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SBUX

Starbucks

$76.81

0.39 (0.51%)

14:53
04/25/19
04/25
14:53
04/25/19
14:53

Fly Intel: What to watch in Starbucks earnings report

Starbucks (SBUX) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal second quarter after the market close on Thursday, April 25, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for: 1. FY19 GUIDANCE: When Starbucks reported first quarter earnings on January 24, it raised its fiscal year 2019 adjusted EPS view to $2.68-$2.73 from $2.61-$2.66, against a consensus at the time of $2.65. The company updated its non-GAAP EPS view to reflect the favorability related to certain discrete income tax items recognized in Q1. Starbucks said it saw Q2 results being "seasonally lower." Starbucks reiterated its outlook of adding approximately 2,100 net new Starbucks stores globally, and for consolidated GAAP revenue growth of 5%-7%, which includes approximately 2% net negative impact related to Streamline-driven activities. Starbucks also updated its FY19 global comparable store sales guidance to growth between 3%-4% to "conform with its ongoing earnings growth model provided at its December 2018 Investor Day." Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson said, "Starbucks delivered solid operating results in the first quarter, demonstrating continued momentum in our business, as we drive our growth-at-scale agenda with focus and discipline. We are particularly pleased with the sequential improvement in quarterly comparable store transactions in the U.S., underpinned by our digital initiatives and improved execution of our in-store experience. With this solid start to the fiscal year, we are on track to deliver on our full-year commitments." 2. REWARDS PROGRAM, UBEREATS PARTNERSHIP: Starbucks said on its Q1 conference call that its Starbucks Rewards loyalty program grew to 16.3M active members in the U.S., up 14% year-over-year, and the company stated that it was still aiming to enhance both its loyalty and rewards programs. Starbucks also said on its Q1 conference call that it was "confident" in the long-term prospects of UberEATS, and added that the partnership with UberEATS was gaining momentum. Starbucks Delivers has been "seamlessly" integrated into UberEATS app, the company added. Starbucks expanded the active user base by about 1M customers in Q1. The day after the Q1 report, Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass said Starbucks reported a "positive, less controversial quarter," with sequentially improving traffic in U.S. and "stable" China comps, both of which were better than investors feared. The roll out of nitro cold brew, upcoming changes to the loyalty program and delivery via UberEats all suggest that current U.S. momentum could be maintained, said Glass, who continues to assume global comp growth of about 3% for the year. He kept an Equal Weight rating and $70 price target on Starbucks shares. 3. STARBUCKS CUT TO NEUTRAL AT UBS: On April 8, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger downgraded Starbucks to Neutral from Buy while raising his price target for the shares to $78 from $72. The risk/reward on shares "appears balanced" with the stock up 55% since June, Geiger wrote at the time. He believes Starbucks is better positioned going forward with improved same-store sales momentum and streamlined operations. However, the shares "reflect this and expectations are now elevated," Geiger added. The analyst concluded that while repurchase activity and upside to forecasts "could support further multiple expansion," he sees risks from "downside to more elevated sales/earnings expectations as an offset."

  • 25

    Apr

SBUX Starbucks
$76.81

0.39 (0.51%)

04/18/19
JEFF
04/18/19
NO CHANGE
Target $89
JEFF
Buy
Starbucks price target raised to $89 from $76 at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Andy Barish raised his price target for Starbucks to $89 from $76 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock closed yesterday at $75.12. Barish says that despite the emergence of "Third Wave" coffee competitors, his "data-driven overlap analysis" and various growth scenarios point to a limited impact on Starbucks' same-store-sales. The company's competitive advantages, namely its size, scale and technology, and its shift to more suburban growth should support its long-term targets, Barish tells investors in a research note. The analyst raised his fiscal 2019 U.S. same-store-sales estimate to 4% from 3.3% and sees visibility to consistent 3%-4% sales and unit growth in the U.S.
04/18/19
OPCO
04/18/19
NO CHANGE
Target $81
OPCO
Outperform
Starbucks price target raised to $81 from $72 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner raised his price target for Starbucks to $81 from $72 on valuation as he remains confident in drivers behind healthy same-store sales. Nonetheless, the analyst recognizes that multiple expansion is difficult to justify in near-term. Bittner reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock, particularly ahead of an accelerating earnings scenario he envisions in 2020.
04/10/19
PIPR
04/10/19
NO CHANGE
Target $70
PIPR
Neutral
Starbucks price target raised to $70 from $60 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Nicole Miller Regan raised her price target for Starbucks to $70 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the name following March channel checks. In March, our Starbucks checks were steady in the positive mid-single-digit range, Regan tells investors in a research note. She notes, however, that her Starbucks checks, on average, have been approximately 120 basis points below actual results over the last four quarters. As such, the analyst is maintaining her positive 3% fiscal Q2 same-store sales estimate for the Americas segment. Regan remains Neutral rated on Starbucks with an "incrementally positive bias." It appears the potential overhang related to sales momentum and/or operational execution in the Americas segment has been partially removed, says the analyst.
04/08/19
04/08/19
DOWNGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. General Electric (GE) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Stephen Tusa saying with the stock up 38% year-to-date, many investors are underestimating the severity of the challenges and underlying risks at GE, while overestimating the value of "small positives." 2. Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS with analyst Dennis Geiger saying the risk/reward on shares "appears balanced" with the stock up 55% since June. 3. Boeing (BA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill with analyst Ronald Epstein citing the company's announcement that it will cut 737 production rates to 42 per month from 52 per month, which he takes to likely mean that the 737 delay could last longer than previously expected. 4. Micron (MU) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen with analyst Karl Ackerman saying his field work indicates Micron's profitability will decline again in calendar year 2020. 5. Roku (ROKU) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi with analyst Mark May saying the stock is up 110% year-to-date and near all-time highs. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

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