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SHOP

Shopify

$250.74

-8.05 (-3.11%)

07:20
05/14/19
05/14
07:20
05/14/19
07:20

Morgan Stanley says Shopify model overvalued, downgrades to Underweight

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Essex downgraded Shopify to Underweight from Equal Weight, citing his view that the stock is not deserving of the same multiple as high-growth U.S. Software-as-a-Service companies as less than half of Shopify's revenue comes from subscriptions. Most of Shopify's revenue is transaction-based and its mix is shifting increasingly toward transaction-based revenue, said Essex, who adds that he thinks investors are overpaying for Shopify's Merchant Solutions business at the stock's current valuation. Essex raised his price target on Shopify shares to $209 from $173, however, as he changed his valuation framework to sum-of-the-parts from discounted cash flow.

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SHOP Shopify
$250.74

-8.05 (-3.11%)

05/14/19
MSCO
05/14/19
DOWNGRADE
MSCO
Underweight
Shopify downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
05/14/19
BARD
05/14/19
NO CHANGE
Target $269
BARD
Outperform
Baird reiterates Outperform on Shopify following management meetings
After hosting "well-attended" investor meetings with Shopify management, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares with a $269 price target. Shopify continues to benefit from positive network effects, driven by data aggregated on the platform that enables continuous improvement of services plus the addition of new services, Sebastian tells investors in a research note. He points out that management highlighted stable cohort revenue trends, a large and increasing total addressable market, and robust product development. Sebastian says the meetings helped reinforce his view that Shopify is building a "sustainable and differentiated high-value e-commerce platform."
05/13/19
05/13/19
DOWNGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Deere (DE) and Titan Machinery (TITN) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird. 2. Boot Barn (BOOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Pivotal Research with analyst Mitch Kummetz saying he sees a less favorable risk/reward at current share levels heading into the company's results on May 16. He does not see enough room for upside to his estimates, mainly because he believes oil and gas employment is becoming a "diminishing tailwind." 3. Shopify (SHOP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim with analyst Ken Wong saying he sees upside potential as limited given the stock's current valuation, which he notes has now passed previous peak levels. 4. ADT Inc. (ADT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Toni Kaplan saying she has less confidence in the company's growth outlook following a recent AlphaWise survey conducted by the firm. 5. 51job (JOBS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi with analyst Alicia Yap saying she believes weakening operating metrics, such as a faster rate of decline for active employer count and slower rate of growth of ARPU, may be signals of challenges for online recruitment revenue growth. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
05/13/19
GUGG
05/13/19
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
Shopify downgraded to Neutral at Guggenheim with valuation above prior peak
As previously reported, Guggenheim analyst Ken Wong downgraded Shopify to Neutral from Buy as he sees upside potential as limited given the stock's current valuation, which he notes has now passed previous peak levels. While he still sees Shopify as a disruptive force within retail, Wong believes bullish investors are already factoring in revenue beats in FY19 and FY20 that are consistent with the company's historical outperform to consensus, he tells investors.

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