The Michigan sentiment report
The Michigan sentiment report revealed a June drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May, versus a 2-year low of 91.2 last January and a 14-year high of 101.4 in March of 2018. All the "soft" data measures have bounced since the December-January pull-back, though analysts face renewed "trade war" headwinds that have impacted some measures, and it's notable that all of today's Michigan sentiment weakness was in the expectations component. Analysts still expect a lean savings rate and solid consumption growth into mid-year as the public is less concerned than the financial markets about the trade war, as was evident in today's solid retail sales report. Note that the 5-10 year inflation index plunged to a new all-time low of 2.2% from 2.6%, versus a previous all-time low of 2.3% in April. For other June surveys, the IBD/TIPP index fell to 53.2, following a May pop to a 58.6 cycle-high from 54.2 in April. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index is averaging 61.6 thus far in June, which will mark a new cycle-high average, after a 60.5 May average. Analysts expect a June consumer confidence decline to 133.5 from a 6-month high of 134.1, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 in January and a 3-month string of 18-year highs that ended with a lofty 137.9 reading in October.