The 13k initial claims drop to 209k
The 13k initial claims drop to 209k in the first week of July, which included the Independence Day holiday, followed a 7k drop to 222k (was 221K) at the end of June. Analysts believe this year's auto retooling lifted claims in late-June, before a drop to an expected trough in the 204k area by next week's report, thanks to seasonal factor "pay-back." Claims are entering July just below the 222k average in June, as well as prior averages of 217k in May, 215k in April, and 214k in March. Analysts saw a cycle-low 212k average last September. Next week's July BLS Survey week reading should lie well below recent survey week readings of 217k in June, 212k in May, and 193k in April. Analysts expect a July nonfarm payroll rise of 170k that closely tracks the 172k average year-to-date increase, but undershoots the 192k average gain over the past year. Payrolls face neutral risk from a July drop-back analysts expect in claims from elevated June levels, a stabilization producer sentiment after a June down-tilt, and lofty levels for most consumer confidence measures. Analysts've seen a weaker ADP trajectory through the small 102k June rise. Vehicle sales have oscillated in the firm 17.3-17.4 M are in May and June, and analysts expect a slight Q3 up-tilt in vehicle assembly rates from an estimated 11.1 M June clip.