Analysts've revised our U.S. GDP estimates
Analysts've revised our U.S. GDP estimates to incorporate today's firm CPI, weak Boeing data, and announced 10% tariff delays from some goods from China to December 15 that will prompt substantial import "front running" in late-Q3 and Q4. Analysts lowered our Q3 GDP estimate to 2.1% from 2.3%, but boosted our Q4 GDP estimate to 2.7% from 2.5%. Analysts lowered our Q3 real consumption forecast to 2.8% from 3.1% given firm Q3 prices, but raised our Q4 estimate to 2.7% from 2.5% with less assumed Q4 price bounce. Analysts now expect a -$29 (was -$21) B net export figure in Q3. Analysts expect a much smaller net export contribution of $13 (was $36) B in Q4 that will feed Q4 inventories, with a likely big trade and inventory reversal in Q1. Analysts still assume that Boeing's inventories of 737s are all delivered in Q4, with substantial assembly "catch up" during the quarter, though the risk is rising that the planes won't all be delivered in this calendar year.