Biogen drops after Bernstein sees potential downside of $100 on Q1 risks

Bernstein analyst Aaron Gal earlier today lowered his price target for Biogen (BIIB) to $288 from $341 while keeping a Market Perform rating on the shares. The Biogen "debate" revolves primarily around three elements: the durability of the existing franchises, the value of the company's Alzheimer's opportunity, and the potential of the pipeline to generate new drugs, Gal wrote in a research note. He believes the stock's current risk/reward balance "captures these dynamics." In Q1 of 2019, however, Biogen is facing "two significant risks," says the analyst. These are the inter partes review institution decision on its biggest drug, Tecfidera, and futility analyses of amyloid beta drugs - Roche's (RHHBY) crenezumab and potentially Biogen's own aducanumab, according to Gal. The analyst views Biogen's near-term risk/reward as "sharply negative." If a review of Tecfidera is instituted and one of the amyloid beta trials is stopped for futility, the stock "can easily" trade $100 per share lower, Gal believes. Even if one of these events goes against the company, the analyst thinks the Biogen can drop $30-$80 per share. On the other hand, passing both risks will likely only have "moderate upside" of around $30 per share as "both are assumed to be positive in sell-side consensus," Gal writes. He keeps a Market Perform rating on Biogen, which is down 7%, or $21.45, to $291.66 in afternoon trading.