Jefferies confident Amarin will win patent trial, sees up to 20% rally

Court proceedings for the Amarin (AMRN) versus Dr. Reddy's (RDY) and Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HKMPF) case have ended, following seven days of expert witness testimony, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee tells investors in a research note. The judge did not provide a preliminary ruling or hint at which way she is ruling, but she did state the written ruling will be made by March 31, Yee points out. With the proceedings completed, and Dr. Reddy's and Hikma having presented their best case, Yee is now more confident that Amarin is likely to prevail, "removing the chief overhang on the stock." Amarin shares have been relatively range bound the last month despite positive news on the competitive front with two key competitor trials having failed, Yee contends. He attributes this to uncertainty associated with the patent trial and the potential risk for Reddy's and Hikma, two prospective generics for Amarin's Vascepa, to present some "bombshell" evidence. However, the analyst now thinks it will be hard for the judge to not rule in favor of Amarin. Yee sees the stock up 10%-20% on a positive ruling and keeps a Buy rating on Amarin with a $30 price target. The stock closed Tuesday at $20.26.