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AMZN

Amazon.com

$1,832.00

9.16 (0.50%)

, M

Macy's

$21.47

-0.11 (-0.51%)

11:05
05/14/19
05/14
11:05
05/14/19
11:05

Fly Intel: What to watch in Macy's earnings report

Macy's (M) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter before the market open on Wednesday, May 15 with a conference call scheduled for 9:30 am EDT. What to watch for: 1. TURNAROUND: Last year, Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette said he was "committed" to stabilizing its brick and mortar business, and that customers had been confused by "very complex" pricing. Macy's updated its strategic priorities for 2019 in February, saying it plans to renovate 100 more stores and further expand its selection online. Macy's also said it would invest in what it dubbed "destination businesses," dresses, fine jewelry, men's tailored apparel, women's shoes, beauty, and "big ticket." Further, Macy's plans to double the number of in-store pop-up market locations, build out its virtual reality furniture capabilities and slim down the upper management ranks. Beginning this year, the company expects the restructuring efforts to generate annual savings of $100M. 2. GUIDANCE: In February, Macy's forecast fiscal 2019 earnings per share excluding settlement charges of $3.05-$3.25, below analysts' consensus estimates at the time of $3.30. Net sales for the fiscal year were expected to be "approximately flat," with same-store sales on an owned plus licensed basis flat to up 1% and SSS on an owned basis flat to up 1%. While the company said it can achieve growth in comparable-store sales, that growth won't come immediately. Cleveland Research analyst Rusty Wilson lowered his Q1 owned comp store sales estimate for Macy's to down 0.5% from flat, citing weather headwinds and soft trends during Easter and the company's "Friends & Family" event. He noted that consensus calls for a 0.1% decline in owned comps in Q1 and also thinks gross margin will be pressured by elevated markdowns and promotions in Q1. 3. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE: Macy's has been faced with competition from fast-fashion retailers like H&M, as well as an increase in online shopping on Amazon.com (AMZN). Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink said in March that Amazon's launch of a value priced private label skincare brand, Belei, "came as a bit of a surprise," adding that her sense from contacts inside and outside of the e-commerce company is that the launch is meant to establish a stronger presence, refine a more robust beauty platform and provide data to improve access to national brands.

AMZN

Amazon.com

$1,832.00

9.16 (0.50%)

M

Macy's

$21.47

-0.11 (-0.51%)

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AMZN Amazon.com
$1,832.00

9.16 (0.50%)

05/14/19
COWN
05/14/19
NO CHANGE
COWN
Skechers, G-III among apparel names with outsized tariff risk, says Cowen
Cowen analyst John Kernan said 34% of apparel and about 70% of footwear imported into the U.S. come from China, adding that 25% tariffs on apparel and footwear will create "major disruption" at a time when companies are already facing accelerating disruption from technology and Amazon (AMZN). The analyst, who thinks diversifying from China sourcing will be slow, said he views Skechers (SKX), G-III Apparel (GIII), Carter's (CRI), PVH Corp. (PVH) and Ralph Lauren (RL) as among the apparel stocks with outsized EPS risk. He added that he thinks companies like Under Armour (UAA), that may have lower than sector average exposure to China sourcing but also have lower EBIT margins, as faced with greater sensitivity to higher cost of goods.
05/13/19
MSCO
05/13/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $7
MSCO
Equal Weight
ADT Inc. downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Toni Kaplan downgraded ADT Inc. (ADT) to Equal Weight from Overweight as she has less confidence in the company's growth outlook following a recent AlphaWise survey conducted by the firm. The survey showed homeowners seem as inclined to buy DIY systems as ADT systems, that more ADT customers switched to DIY providers than she would have expected and that measure of brand preference for Amazon's (AMZN) Ring and Google's (GOOG) Nest were higher than for ADT, Kaplan explains. Given that the survey leads her to fear ADT may find it difficult to defend its market share, Kaplan lowered her price target on the stock to $7 from $9.
05/07/19
BMOC
05/07/19
NO CHANGE
Target $170
BMOC
Outperform
Disney price target raised to $170 from $140 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon raised his price target on Disney (DIS) to $170 and kept his Outperform rating ahead of its Q2 results, saying he expects an "upbeat quarter" and positive commentary around June quarter's main events of Endgame box office and the first Edge of Galaxy opening. The analyst also believes that the company will join Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) at the helm of global streaming while noting that its Star Wars themed lands its theme parks and the launch of Disney+ will materialize as catalysts for this year.
05/03/19
JEFF
05/03/19
NO CHANGE
Target $85
JEFF
Buy
Planet Fitness price target raised to $85 from $75 at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik raised his price target for Planet Fitness (PLNT) to $85 from $75 saying the company reported "great" Q1 results with comps and margins ahead of consensus. However, the shares are trading lower due to elevated expectations, Konik tells investors in a research note. He continues to believe Planet Fitness' investments in marketing, expanding affinity programs, increasing Black Card penetration, and membership growth resemble a business model similar to that of Amazon.com (AMZN). The analyst sees upside in the shares and reiterates a Buy rating on the name.
M Macy's
$21.47

-0.11 (-0.51%)

05/08/19
CLVD
05/08/19
NO CHANGE
CLVD
Neutral
Macy's Q1 owned comps estimate lowered at Cleveland Research
Cleveland Research analyst Rusty Wilson lowered his Q1 owned comp store sales estimate for Macy's to down 0.5% from flat, citing weather headwinds and soft trends during Easter and the company's "Friends & Family" event. He noted that consensus calls for a 0.1% decline in owned comps in Q1. Wilson, who also thinks gross margin will be pressured by elevated markdowns and promotions in Q1, keeps a Neutral rating on Macy's shares.
04/03/19
STPT
04/03/19
UPGRADE
STPT
Buy
Macy's upgraded to Buy from Hold at Standpoint Research
02/20/19
WEDB
02/20/19
NO CHANGE
Target $65
WEDB
Neutral
Dillard's price target lowered to $65 from $70 at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Jen Redding lowered his price target for Dillard's (DDS) to $65 from $70 as she leans cautiously into earnings, with her data models showing revenues a touch below consensus, elevated e-commerce inventories, and lackluster consumer spending fueled by a late tax return season, likely compounding pressures for the beleaguered department store group. Though shares depreciated less than Macy's (M), Nordstrom (JWN), and Kohl's (KSS) for the period November 5 through January 31, the analyst attributes relative outperformance compared to the peer group as owing to Dillard's low profile presence on the street, and limited availability of data points versus investor expectations for an upcoming positive catalyst. Redding reiterates a Neutral rating on Dillard's shares.
02/12/19
CLVD
02/12/19
NO CHANGE
CLVD
Macy's sales softened in January, says Cleveland Research

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MRCY

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